What the survey found: According to the poll analysis, made available to Pulse on Tuesday, February 7, 2023, among voters who announced their candidate choice, Peter Obi is the candidate who receives at least 25% of the vote in the most geopolitical zones (5 out of 6). He has a 4-to-1 advantage against Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives’ candidate, while PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar only receives 25% of the vote in two (2) geographical zones.
What you should know: According to two ANAP polls done between September and December 2022, Obi is ahead of other front-runners. In addition, the Nextier Poll recently indicated that Peter Obi will win.
What distinguishes the Stears poll from other polls is: The Nigerian survey with the highest sample size was conducted offline and included more than 6200 respondents.
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Additionally, Stears overcame a challenge that had limited all other surveys, making this poll genuinely groundbreaking.
Michael Famoroti, Head of Intelligence & Co-Founder of Stears, explained this issue as now being resolved, “Peter Obi is in the lead with 27% of the vote, followed by Bola Ahmed Tinubu (15%) and Atiku Abubakar (12%), according to a simple examination of the poll results.
This is consistent with the findings of earlier surveys, although it is difficult to draw firm conclusions without taking into account the significant proportion of respondents who do not indicate a candidate preference—a figure that has reached as high as 50% in previously published surveys.
Stears’ patented algorithm is able to provide responses by forecasting the most likely candidate for quiet votes in cases where other polls have been unable to do so because of the significant percentage of silent voters.”
Who the quiet voters represent: Stears’ predictive model predicts that Tinubu will receive 43% of the undeclared votes, indicating that the majority of those who chose not to divulge their ballots were BATified.
When the reassigned quiet voters are added to the stated voter count, Peter Obi still leads all other front-runners.
